Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has got something to gain from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
