Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is devoted on managing particular approaches. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a automatic firearm opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, undoubtedly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not change more in its benefit in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing people and territory but averting a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new proposals based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
